Feb 17, 2011 this report is the common context analysis of the syria crisis, and it is one of the three primary deliverables of call. Syria s ongoing civil conflict by providing nonlethal assistance to syrian opposition and civil society groups, encouraging diplomatic efforts to reach a political settlement to the civil war, and serving as the largest single. For now, the focus should be on immediate steps to deescalate the conflict and. The geopolitics of syrias reconstruction clingendael institute. A just war analysis niamh maria osullivan abstract few issues in international politics have sparked more debate this year than the events unfolding in syria. Syria crisis common context analysis interagency standing. Executive summary the syrian war has lasted for over seven years and has undergone significant change in terms of the actors involved and the nature of the conflict. The conflict in syria thus increasingly resembles a proxy war. Regarding the proxy war concepts explained by mumford 20, regional and international backers of both warring sides have clearly provided manpower, materials, financing, and even nonmilitary support such as. As the civil war in syria drags on, the scale of displacement continues to increase. Addressing the need of syrian refugees has drained the resources of jordanian. Rebuilding empire at the margins netherlands institute of. The syrian war has lasted for over seven years and has undergone significant change in terms of the actors involved and the nature of the conflict.
Jun 24, 2015 syria international energy data and analysis last updated. Nor can the syrian war be attributed solely to conflicts dating back millen nia. Transnational news media coverage of distant suffering in the. It is also driven, however, by a range of civil forces that are the result of longterm structural problems that have led to major political upheavals. In the final analysis, the combination of the misaligned global interests of the us war on terror, antiiran and russia reestablishing great power status, keeping syria on its side with the regional conflict between saudi arabia and iran makes the reconstruction of syria hostage to irreconcilable agendas given the countrys. Pdf in 2011, an antigovernment protest broke out across several cities in tunisia in response to oppressive regimes, low standard of living. Syrias path from civic uprising to civil war carnegie. Regional proxy war the global discord over syria is also reflected on the regional level.
News media across the globe have devoted extensive coverage to syria s civil war and have produced varying media discourses. Coalition analysis also indicates that as long as iran and russia supports syrian regime with armory, syria escalates the war against internal. The united states cannot avoid or ignore the conflict in syria. What began 17 months ago as peaceful marches seeking reform has brought syria to the brink of a civil war that threatens to stop the arab spring dead in its tracks. The internationalization of the syrian conflict 25 3. The civil war in syria has caused a mass influx of syrian refugees into other countries throughout the region and beyond. The political economic context of syrias reconstruction. Palestine, the gulf region, and the syrian and kurdish complex. Apr 28, 2018 the syrian war has lasted for over seven years, from the initial protests against the regime to the internationalised conflict today. Through the analysis of opensource information related to the syrian conflict and consultations with stakeholders on the ground, the center has documented and mapped over 200,000 conflict events in syria, as well as the changing relations between thousands of armed groups and their areas of control, and frontline changes throughout the conflict.
This study first seeks to deepen the understanding and analysis around reconstruction dynamics. Jordan has received a large share of syrian refugees, currently totaling to the alarming number of 1. Conflict resolution and the syrian war conflict analysis. Context and history of the conflict 1 the syrian armed conflict began in 2011 as a civil war, stemming from the arab spring protests. Sohail mahmood on april 7, 2018 an alleged chemical weapons attack took place in douma, syria in which 70 people were killed. In parallel, these state actors are involved with differentand often competinglocal actors, each with their own demands for post conflict governance in syria. The syrian crisis and its impact on lebanon a conflict analysis. Describe the effects of the war and resulting peace treaties on population movement. Cordesman download the report the current crisis in iraq is partly the result of the failures by its current leadership and political figures, the legacy of the fighting against isis, and the result of shortterm policy decisions. Syria security situation european asylum support office. In the final analysis, the combination of the misaligned global interests of the. A regional conflict by proxy, which included an eastwest dimension after the russian military intervention september 2015, was also grafted onto the civil war. Pdf a conflict analysis of the intergroup conflict in syria.
Regional conflict complex theory and the syrian war. This senior thesis is an in depth analysis of the historical causes of the syrian civil war. Liberalism, foreign policy, foreign intervention, syria civil war, russia foreign policy, us. Evidence in support of the existence of an armed conflict and its classification 23 2. Given syria s central location in the middle east, its ruling regimes ties. It must be noted that none of these three arguments adhere fully to a pure singleimage explanation of the causes of the syrian civil war. To determine the reasons behind the current state of syria, an analysis was conducted by examining syrian domestic politics, followed by regional geopolitics and. Students analyze the effects of the first world war. The third relates directly to the syrian war, but all three of these are relevant to. Over,000 people have died, millions have fled their homes as refugees and the use of chemical weapons by bashar al assad on his own people has outraged the world.
The syria crisis, displacement and protection reliefweb. Syria crisis common context analysis update humanitarian. This will remain the case for the foreseeable future. This report analyses the security situation in syria, focusing in particular on the situation for the. A conflict analysis and resolution perspective caris working papers 1802 3 conflict complexes linked to syria. It is the present stage and the likeliest forecast for the foreseeable future. Syria study group final report united states institute of peace. An analysis of foreign involvement within the syria conflict. Structural factors present within the country created tensions when the revolutionary wave of the arab spring invested the frustrations of many segments of the. I argue that the main components leading to the civil war under bashar alasad were as follows. The socioeconomic impact of the syrian civil war maha yahya the unravelling of the syrian uprising and its transformation into a conflict in multiple war zones is of catastrophic consequences for syrian citizens. The syrian people started protesting in march 2011 in daara against the corruption of president bashar alassads government.
The government of bashar alassad has largely won, but the cost has been steep. Any chance that the syrian opposition could compel the. June 24, 2015 notes full report overview syria s energy sector is in turmoil because of the ongoing civil conflict that began in the spring of 2011, with oil and natural gas production declining dramatically since then. As the syria conflict persists and the humanitarian crisis in the region worsens. Syria on its side with the regional conflict between saudi arabia and iran makes. The syrian conflict is as a multilayered struggle involving many actors and interests. According to a research study conducted by the european institute of peace eip, 2016,1 terrorism and conflict news in relation to the syrian war were the main aspects of global media coverage from march 2015 to. The analysis of the syrian conflict presented below is not meant to be a definitive history. The syrian conflict has occurred within the context of other uprisings against various governments in the middle east and north africa in the last two years. The downfall of isis in eastern syria did not, however, resolve the broader syrian conflict. Addressing isis in syria now requires a more nuanced, localized analysis. These outcomes have been characterized through analysis of the most likely courses of action mlcoas and most dangerous courses of action mdcoas for three primary actors. During the course of the war, syria became the scene for a series of.
Afghanistan, iraq, syria, libya, and yemen center for. It represents a groundbreaking but preliminary attempt to map key drivers of the syrian conflict, in a language addressed to policymakers and development and stabilisation practitioners. The present report analyses the impact of the syrian conflict and refugee crisis on lebanon and lebanese host communities. As on several other occasions in the modern history of the middle east, syria has become a central battleground in the struggle for dominance between various regional actors. While there has been a recent growth in the study of syria s domestic and regional politics, its foreign policy in a global systemic context remains understudied within mainstream international relations ir, foreign policy analysis fpa, and even middle eastern studies, despite syria s geopolitical centrality in the region. As of january 2015, the conflict had claimed more than 200 000 lives. The analysis of warfare in civil wars has been plagued by an imprecise use. Syrias war explained from the beginning syria news al.
Analysis of military options for intervention in syria. Conflict mapping and the syrian civil war conflict analysis. The essential question before american policymakers is not whether the united states should keep or with draw its. The economy is shattered, there are more than 5 million syrian refugees abroad, and the government lacks the resources to rebuild. In august 2017, cnn reported the findings of the ninth annual bursonmarsteller arab youth survey that analyzes the attitudes and beliefs of young syrian refugees in jordan and. Media is an important consideration for protecting social harmony, even if there is only a correlation between the turkish medias coverage of syrian refugees economic impact and turkish citizens resentment towards them on economic matters. Almost 4 million people have fled syria since the outbreak of the civil war, 1. Pdf formal strategic analysis of the conflict over syria.
Firstly, there has been a huge loss in terms of human deaths and damages to property. At the same time, the emergence of terrorist groups in the region, and in particular the islamic state of iraq and syria isis, quickly imposed another. Jun 12, 2019 the geopolitical factor is indeed crucial in the analysis of the syrian civil war from domestic to regional and global politics. The syrian conflict and american interests from the conflict s beginning in 2011 as a peaceful domestic uprising, experts warned that president bashar alassads brutal response was likely to have serious, negative impacts on u. In this analysis syria is not assigned much agency, and its faith is to a large extent determined by external factors. This report is the common context analysis of the syria crisis, and it is one of the three primary deliverables of call. A fourth option in which allies give both sides enough to survive but not prevail would perpetuate a proxy war with syrians as primary victims. A corpusbased thematic analysis kim hua tan1 and alirupendi perudin2 abstract this study analyzes the key attributions of the assad regimes failure to end the protracted syrian civil war.
It has resulted in the deaths of an estimated half a million people, injured and displacing millions more, devastated the countrys infrastructure and is rumbling on with no end in sight. The conflict analysis also suggests that the fragmentation of the syrian political and military opposition is undesirable. The chances of a negotiated solution for the civil war in syria are smaller than ever. What can civil war scholars tell us about the syrian conflict. From the outset of hostilities, minimizing american involvement in the war and safeguarding u. The ongoing conflict activit in areas ies where local, isisaffiliated networks have historically operated indicates that currently, isis in syria is not operating as a single, coordinated entity. It has also defied attempts at mediation aimed towards resolving the central incompatibility of the. The full issue and all the individual articles are online in html, pdf and audio. Feb 06, 2016 geopolitics is used to explain the outbreak and developments of the syrian civil war. Eight years on, the syrian civil war is finally winding down.
These uprisings are regarded as being part of a movement called the arab spring. The prewar socioeconomic reality of syrian society, in particular its inequalities, is. Civil war in syria and the new wars debate peace palace library. Analysis of military options for intervention in syria the civil war in syria is well into its third year with no end in sight. This common context analysis is one of the outputs of this initiative. Isis, jabhat alnusra, and the syrian regime with its allies.
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